6.86 Pub Win Rate Trends
The new patch was released only a few days ago but we can already witness different changes in the win rate of several heroes. It is still early to have a perfect picture of the situation, but we can savor the initial changes and understand which heroes received the most obvious buffs/nerf, at least in a pub environment
Dragon Knight’s Dragon Blood HP regen increased from 2/3/4/5 to 3/6/9/12; the regen with 4 points in this ability is astonishing. He was situationally picked in pro games during v6.85 with a 5.5% pick rate, but in v6.86 it has already increased to 14.1% - now he will surely have more opportunities because maxing Dragon Blood makes it almost impossible to kill him in lane. Overall the change is great but not OP, still the regen could be a bit too high and maybe, later on, it will be decreased by a couple of points, as it happened with Doom’s Scorched Earth in the previous patch.
Invoker now starts with a point in Invoke, so you can use Sun Strike, EMP or Cold Snap already at level 1 - the latter being, most probably, the best option, especially for contesting the Bounty Rune. It is a solid change for the hero, a free skill point which will help his early game, but we didn't expect such a high win rate increase.
Chen’s HP increased and he received a direct buff to Penitence. An early skill point in this ability is really valuable because you will increase all damage inflicted to a particular enemy and reduce his movement speed by 15% at level 1 for 8 seconds - it is perfect for any early gank in lane, especially if the opponent has no skills to counter your slow or to blink away. Finally, IceFrog also indirectly buffed his pushing ability, now the Centaur Courser and the Hellbear (the small neutrals) have a stacking magic resistance aura of 20% for units and 5% for heroes. By taking control of one or more of them with Holy Persuasion, it will be possible to increase the magic resistance of all the creeps, thus making them more durable against nuking heroes. The Ancient Black Dragon also received a new cool ability, Fireball, that can ignite a 300 AoE for 10 seconds inflicting 85 damage per second to all units. This ability increases the value of an Aghanim on Chen and could be strategically utilized when pushing or during teamfights.
Medusa’s Mystic Snake now steals 11/14/17/20% of the total mana. It is a pretty cool buff, especially in lane, but truly we didn’t expect it to increase her win rate so much. It will be necessary to wait a longer period of time to understand the real value of this change in pub games.
Much more interesting is the situation for the heroes that decreased their win rate the most. Riki received different changes and was removed from Captain’s Mode.
- - Riki grants 0.4/0.6/0.8/1.0 damage when attacking from behind.
- - Invisibility Fade Time: 6/5/4/3 seconds
- - No longer grants 6/8/10/12 HP regeneration
Blink Strike back to basic ability without charges
- -Damage: 20/40/60/80
- -Cooldown: 16/12/8/4
- -Mana cost: 50
Tricks of the Trade
- -Riki phases out of the world for up to 3/4/5 seconds, attacking every enemy from behind in a 450 area around him. He attacks once when phasing out and then once per second while being phased out.
- -Cooldown: 90/80/70
- -Mana cost: 75
- -Cast Point: 0.4
- -Strength growth reduced from 2.0 to 1.6
- -Agility growth reduced from 2.9 to 2.2
- -Base armor reduced by 1
- -Smoke Screen no longer slows turn rates
Overall, his damage and durability in lane was decreased, he lost the health regen and received different nerfs to HP, agility and Backstab’s damage. Riki can’t be played in offlane anymore and IceFrog made him more suitable to the actual meta, in fact he lost most of his snowballing power but become a better teamfighter. The new ultimate has a great potential, in fact he can theoretically damage all the enemy team multiple times without being even hit. It is also great against illusion-heavy heroes and many pushers.
Gif courtesy of r/Dota2
Why did he lose more than 11% win rate? His pick rate increased by 8.4%, but probably he was mostly played in normal skill games, where a lot of players wanted to try the new ultimate without considering the team’s composition. We will need to wait weeks in order to reduce the excessive picks and understand the true potential of these changes. Riki is almost a new hero, the players need to play him in a different way compared to the last patch.
As you can see from the table, the next three heroes had some of their abilities reworked and got removed from Captain’s Mode. Their win rate has dropped significantly in pub games. We are going to take a look at them individually, but overall we think that the results are only stationary, players will need to time to understand how to play these heroes.
Death Prophet, in our opinion, received a big buff - her ability Witchcraft got replaced by Spirit Siphon, which creates a link between you and the target (300 maximum range), draining 20 + 1/1.8/2.6/3.4% max HP per second and slowing their movement speed. It last 4 seconds and has a maximum of 4 charges. You can use this new ability to slow down multiple enemies during a teamfight while your ultimate is active, or even better to focus a single enemy, slowing him for a total of 16 seconds. Your ideal target is a melee without good escapes (to lower the chances to actually break the link) and with plenty of HP in order to increase your heal. This ability solves some of Death Prophet’s weakness, the necessity of an item to slow the enemies during her ultimate and a heal to improve her survivability chances during Exorcism (during it she becomes the main target of the enemy team).
Doom received some necessary nerfs; in fact the hero ban rate during v6.85 was insanely high- as much as 74%. His win rate in pub, of course, has decreased as a result, but he is still a good pick. The new ability, Infernal Blade, seems very interesting. It is not a nuke like Level Death but it encourages a more aggressive item build on Doom - the ministun every 4 seconds is also a great way to deal with teleports and to block channeled abilities during a teamfight.
It isn’t easy to tell how powerful the new Faceless Void will be . The introduced ability, Time Dilation, will be extremely good against any hero that can usually use his abilities multiple times during a teamfight, but at the same time it will be completely useless vs others. If accepted into Captain’s Mode, he will be strategically picked against some lineups, making a big difference in teamfight. Timewalk’s ability to undo any damage taken in the last 2 seconds will give him a lot of advantage during ganks and in the laning phase. It seems a very good change for the hero, because he will gain a lot of survivability. The changed skill could even be too strong.
This is just an early overview of the changes implemented in the new patch. After several weeks we will study again the situation with more reliable data. Lastly, the new hero Arc Warden only has a 37% win rate but this is the result of the high 26% pick rate combined with the intrinsic difficulty of this hero gameplay, which requires a good level of micro and decision making. Probably he will be very strong only at high matchmaking levels.
Credits: stats and pictures from Dotabuff
Skulz 19 December 2015, 15:33 11676 0