Natus Vincere versus Fnatic at EMS One:

Natus Vincere's DotA2-roster will spend the following weekend in Poland because EMS One finals will take place there on 20-21 of April. Their first opponent is going to be European team Fnatic. So, we would like to present you a preview of this match.

 
  Natus Vincere Fnatic.eu
Rating JD 5th place, 174\75 9th place, 156\104
Rating GG 5th place, 225\56 9th place, 137\85
Bets at ESL 67% 33%

 

In last four months, the teams met each other eight times. Natus Vincere came out on top in half of them. It's safe to say that neither team can be considered a comfortable opponent for another one. This said, let's take a close look at these teams. We'll start with Fnatic.

During this month, black and orange played thirteen official matches coming out victorious in six of them. Let's find out if there's any consistent pattern in picks, bans and results of team Fnatic:

 

Opponent Fnatic ban Fnatic pick Winner (opponent)
image image image image image image image image image image image image image image image RoX.KiS
image image image image image image image image image  image image image image image image Fnatic (nth)
image image image image image image image image image image image image image image image Fnatic (nth)
image image image image image image image image image image image image image image image Fnatic (nth)
image image image image image image image image image image image image image image image Alliance
image image image image image image image image image image image image image image image Alliance
image image image image image image image image image image image image image image image Fnatic (Empire)
image image image image image image image image image image image image image image image Fnatic (Empire)
image image image image image image image image image image image image image image image Qpad
image image image image image image image image image image image image image image image Fnatic (Qpad)
image image image image image image image image image image image image image image image Fnatic
image image image image image image image image image image image image image image image Empire
image image image image image image image image image image image image image image image Fnatic (Empire)
image image image image image image image image image image image image image image image Empire
image image image image image image image image image image image image image image image Dignitas
image image image image image image image image image image image image image image image Dignitas
The order of the heroes does not reflect the order of their selection in game.

 

Considering the table above with the last 16 maps, we can conclude that Fnatic's default bans are:
 

  1. Wisp - banned 8 times, used by Fnatic 3 times, never used by opponents;

  2. Nyx - banned 8 times, used by Fnatic only once, used by opponents 3 times and never won;

  3. Naix - banned 6 times, used by Fnatic 2 times, used by opponents 3 times and won twice.

 

Most used heroes by Fnatic are:
 

  1. Puck - used by Fnatic 7 times, won once;

  2. Lone Druid - used by Fnatic  7 times, won in 4 of them;

  3. Kotl - used by Fnatic 5 times, won in 3 of them; 

  4. Bane - used by Fnatic 5 times, won in 3 of them.

 

Factoring all the data above it's hard to say that Fnatic have any consistent patterns in their picks. As for the bans, the preferred heroes are Wisp, Nyx, and Naix. The team modified their primitive split-push strategy by "fat" Nature Prophet and PL into a mix of aggression and push in a short time frame. If they get LD they could use hard pushers like Leshrac and Chen in which case it's really hard to stop them. On the other hand, if their opponents have a solid game plan which they strictly follow, Fnatic will have hard time adjusting to it because their play style isn't that flexible. So metaphorically speaking, Fnatic is like a thrown axe: if it hits you - you're dead, but if it flies over your head you can tear up the attacker into 1000 black and orange pieces.

 

As for Na`Vi, it's hard to say anything certain about them because they started to demonstrate more or less solid performance only in the last 2-3 matches. Thus, the conclusion might be somewhat wrong but it must be made anyhow. In April, Na`Vi had only six official matches winning four of them (in two of which they defeated Artyk). So, the team hasn't been really put to the test yet, except for the first match in the last two weeks versus mouz which Na`Vi lost.

 

Opponent Natus Vincere ban Natus Vincere pick Winner (opponent)
image image image image image image image image image image image image image image image Natus Vincere (KP)
image image image image image image image image image image image image image image image Natus Vincere (KP)
image image image image image image image image image image image image image image image Natus Vincere (RoX)
image image image image image image image image image image image image image image image Natus Vincere (Qpad)
image image image image image no data image image image image image Natus Vincere (Artyk)
image image image image image image image image image image image image image image image Natus Vincere (Artyk)
image image image image image image image image image image image image image image image Natus Vincere (Mouz)
image image image image image image image image image image image image image image image Mouz
image image image image image image image image image image image image image image image Mouz
image image image image image image image image image image image image image image image Natus Vincere (Artyk)
image image image image image image image image image image image image image image image Artyk
no data image image image image image image image image image image Natus Vincere (Artyk)

The order of the heroes does not reflect the order of their selection in game.

 

According to the information in the table above, we have the following default bans for Na`Vi:
 

  1. Batrider - banned by Natus Vincere 6 times, never used by opponents;

  2. Wisp - banned by Natus Vincere 6 times, never used by opponents;

  3. PL - banned by Natus Vincere 4 times, used by opponents 4 times, won twice.

 

Picks:
 

  1. Magnus - used 6 times, lost only once;

  2. Bane - used 5 times, won in 4 of them;

  3. Naix - used 5 times, won in 3 of them;

 

We can see that the lists of picks and bans of these teams intersect in one spot: Wisp and Bane correspondingly. There are no other crossovers. Fnatic prefer to base their play on support (Puck) and solo hard (LD) while Natus Vincere focus on the central line by Dendi and hero for XBOCT.

On the other hand, we know that Na`Vi lost the most either with CK+Wisp or in the overextended matches against the push Nature Prophet / Phantom Lancer. It didn't even matter which side they played and how they played it. Perhaps, Na`Vi already know how to effectively counteract both of these strategies.

Let's not guesstimate though. Instead, let's ask for opinions of those who are really familiar with DotA2.

RoX.KiS-Dread: After StarLadder, Fnatic are going to be stronger on LAN. As for me, I'm more curious about how Na`Vi will prove themselves with the new roster. How well they tuned their team play during this time. I expect a really exciting battle.

EmpireTV.Versuta: I would definitely say that Fnatic are going to take this one if H4nn1 wasn't absent so often. Na`Vi are just getting up on their feet, but the team is nevertheless pretty strong. Fnatic's latest performance, on the other hand, proves that they're really motivated to win. The outcome of this match will be determined by the captains. I hope that there won't be any silly jokes about "tactical pause" during EMS ^_^

SLTV.Mtrx4u: Fnatic's team chemistry along with their moral boost on LAN's are really tough obstacles for Na`Vi. The ratio of 6-4 in favor of Na`Vi in the latest 10 matches against them though gives me a sense that the chances are Ukrainians are favorite to win the match 60/40.

We would like to remind you that the match of Natus Vincere against Fnatic will take place on 20 of April at 20:00 CET. NaVi-Gaming.com will provide you with the coverage from the site. You'll find all necessary information at our website, so stick around.

AuthorXeozor Date18 April 2013, 23:01 Views8778 Comments430
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